‘Trinomial Risk Appetite Re-joining Tree’ Real Options Valuation - in Biomedical Business Context
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CitationSingh, Abhishek Narain. (2019). ‘Trinomial Risk Appetite Re-joining Tree’ Real Options Valuation - in Biomedical Business Context. Proceedings of the 2019 International Conference on Bioinformatics & Computational Biology: BIOCOMP'19, 84-97.
The current article opens the door for practical implementation of multinomial rejoining tree where valuation of project increases substantially. When a failure happens at an intermediate stage, based on information and data generated in the process which lead to failure at that stage, as well as based on risk appetite, the project manager or investor can re-invest a fraction of the original planned cost for that stage, to possibly get success. This is how practically problems are being tackled in real world project management, and so it should be for biotechnology. This practical approach is being captured by a new financial mathematical model of multinomial (trinomial) rejoining tree with risk-appetite factor incorporated into it. This method results in much higher valuation than previously known methods, and the method is a more realistic representation of how a manager should take care of finances for a project.