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dc.contributor.authorKoponen, Pekka
dc.contributor.authorIkäheimo, Jussi
dc.contributor.authorKoskela, Juha
dc.contributor.authorBrester, Christina
dc.contributor.authorNiska, Harri
dc.date.accessioned2020-05-20T07:24:11Z
dc.date.available2020-05-20T07:24:11Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.identifier.urihttps://erepo.uef.fi/handle/123456789/8134
dc.description.abstractWhen identifying and comparing forecasting models, there may be a risk that poorly selected criteria could lead to wrong conclusions. Thus, it is important to know how sensitive the results are to the selection of criteria. This contribution aims to study the sensitivity of the identification and comparison results to the choice of criteria. It compares typically applied criteria for tuning and performance assessment of load forecasting methods with estimated costs caused by the forecasting errors. The focus is on short-term forecasting of the loads of energy systems. The estimated costs comprise electricity market costs and network costs. We estimate the electricity market costs by assuming that the forecasting errors cause balancing errors and consequently balancing costs to the market actors. The forecasting errors cause network costs by overloading network components thus increasing losses and reducing the component lifetime or alternatively increase operational margins to avoid those overloads. The lifetime loss of insulators, and thus also the components, is caused by heating according to the law of Arrhenius. We also study consumer costs. The results support the assumption that there is a need to develop and use additional and case-specific performance criteria for electricity load forecasting.
dc.language.isoenglanti
dc.publisherMDPI AG
dc.relation.ispartofseriesEnergies
dc.relation.urihttp://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en13082054
dc.rightsCC BY http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectshort term load forecasting
dc.subjectperformance criteria
dc.subjectpower systems
dc.subjectcost analysis
dc.titleAssessing and Comparing Short Term Load Forecasting Performance
dc.description.versionpublished version
dc.contributor.departmentYmpäristö- ja biotieteiden laitos / Toiminta
dc.contributor.departmentSIB-labs -infrastruktuuriyksikön toiminta
uef.solecris.id70568287en
dc.type.publicationTieteelliset aikakauslehtiartikkelit
dc.rights.accessrights© Authors
dc.relation.doi10.3390/en13082054
dc.description.reviewstatuspeerReviewed
dc.publisher.countrySveitsi
dc.relation.articlenumber2054
dc.relation.issue8
dc.relation.volume13
dc.type.okmA2
uef.solecris.openaccessOpen access -julkaisukanavassa ilmestynyt julkaisu


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